Key facts:
- The first debate between the two candidates will take place this Tuesday.
- Bernstein analysis anticipates possible bitcoin movements.
With less than two months to go before the US presidential election, expectations are growing about its impact on the bitcoin (BTC) market.
According to investment firm Bernstein, a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump will push bitcoin to new all-time highs later this year. Instead, it projects that a victory for his opponent, Democratic front-runner Kamala Harris, will push the currency lower.
According to his estimates, bitcoin could reach $90,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 if Trump wins the election. Otherwise, if Harris wins, he believes that the price of the currency could test the range between $30,000 and $40,000, levels it has not seen since the beginning of the year.
Currently, as CriptoNoticias reported, bitcoin is trading around USD 55,000 while it has been in a corrective sideways period for six months. This phase has taken place since the currency reached a new historical maximum of USD 73,700 in March of this year.
Bernstein points out that Trump has been very clear about his intention to turn the United States into “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.” He also highlights that the candidate has mentioned digital assets in every political speech he has given during his campaign. For this reason, he sees his electoral victory as a catalyst for the market.
In contrast, she clarifies that Harris’ speeches have not mentioned bitcoin and cryptocurrencies . This is despite the fact that Democratic legislators have shown support for regulation that encourages their adoption, such as their exchange-traded funds (ETFs), instruments that were approved this year in the economic powerhouse after years of rejection.
“After the past three years of regulatory purge, a positive cryptocurrency regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring users back to blockchain financial products,” Bernstein analysts commented.
For the firm’s analysts, with this scenario, the bullish positions of the cryptocurrency market may be based on a Trump victory . However, they make the caveat that it is still difficult to predict who will win the elections, which are scheduled for November 5.
However, there are specialists who predict that any winner will be favorable for the market due to the bipartisan support for the industry. Among them is David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase, who expects greater market positioning as the elections approach.
Trump is the favorite in the polls
According to user bets on the Polymarket platform, 52% expect Trump to win while 46% expect Harris. Currently, there is a total of USD 844 million invested in this dynamic.
The debate that the presidential candidates will have on Tuesday, September 10, can give signals about who is best positioned to win. Based on this, it could imply price volatility for bitcoin , especially if the ecosystem is mentioned.
While the topics of debate have not been confirmed, one of the topics to be discussed is expected to be economic policies. Therefore, there is a chance that the candidates will make some reference to digital assets at this point, most notably Trump, who has promised to maintain a national reserve of bitcoin if he wins.
Although this will be the second presidential debate of the campaign, it is the first in which Harris will be speaking. In the previous one, the Democratic side was led by President Joe Biden, who withdrew his candidacy after giving a weak speech at the event.
