The probability of approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the US is quite high

Bitcoin Less Volatile

Recently, the Bernstein brokerage firm published a report indicating that there is a high probability that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Analysts noted that the SEC has already approved futures ETFs, as the price is determined on the CME-regulated exchange.

However, the agency is skeptical of spot Bitcoin ETFs because “spot exchanges, like Coinbase,” are unregulated, making prices unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated:

“The court found no convincing evidence that the futures price is directly dependent on the spot price. Therefore, banning spot ETFs can be difficult.”

The report also highlights Grayscale’s attempt to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund into an ETF, which is currently being considered in an appeals court. In addition, the industry is also actively discussing a supervisory agreement between the operator of a spot exchange and a regulated exchange like Nasdaq.

At the end of the report, it is noted that the SEC is leaning more towards introducing a regulated Bitcoin ETF aimed at major Wall Street players, with oversight provided by regulated exchanges. This approach is seen as more acceptable than using over-the-counter products like GBTC to meet the growing institutional demand for BTC investments.