Gasoline is at record highs: demand destruction has already begun

Gasoline Demand Record Highs
  • The national average price of gasoline, as of Thursday, is $4.97, according to the latest data from AAA, the American Automobile Association.
  • Looking ahead to the summer (USA), analysts predict even higher prices: according to a JPMorgan report, in August it could exceed USD 6.20 per gallon.
  • “You could argue that the destruction of gasoline demand has already begun,” said Peter McNally, global industrials, materials and energy sector leader at Third Bridge.
  • A Chevron station in Mendocino, California, about 150 miles north of San Francisco, had a list price of $9.60 a gallon last Friday afternoon.

Gasoline prices at record highs may be starting to take a toll on demand at the pump.

The national average price of gasoline, as of Thursday, is $4.97, according to the latest data from AAA, the American Automobile Association, which is just cents short of $5 for a gallon of gas. regular gasoline.

Looking ahead to the summer (USA), analysts predict even higher prices: according to a JP Morgan report, in August it could exceed USD 6.20 per gallon.

“You could argue that the destruction of gasoline demand has already begun,” said Peter McNally, global industrials, materials and energy sector leader at Third Bridge .

“Since the beginning of March, US gasoline consumption is 6% lower than the corresponding period in 2019,” added McNally.

Nineteen states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, and Washington) have already passed the Threshold of 5 USD, with California leading the pack at $6.40 per gallon.

A Chevron station in Mendocino, California, about 150 miles north of San Francisco, had a list price of $9.60 a gallon last Friday afternoon.

For now, motorists are still charging as normal, according to AAA spokesman Andrew Gross. But eventually, high prices at the pump will lead to demand destruction, as motorists actively cut back on gasoline to save money.

“At some point, drivers may change their daily driving habits or lifestyle because of these high prices, but we’re not there yet,” Gross said in a statement.

Why is gasoline so expensive?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an obvious factor. The price of gasoline is tied to the cost of crude oil, from which it is refined. Every $10 increase in the cost of a barrel of crude oil adds nearly a quarter to the price of a gallon of refined gasoline.

Although the US does not import much crude from Russia, oil is traded on a global market and any changes affect prices around the world.

The cost of a barrel of oil hit $120, according to AAA, nearly double what it was in August 2021, as demand rapidly outstrips global supply constrained by a US ban on importing Russian oil.