Fidelity Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Is On Track To $144,000

Fidelity Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $30,000, which is down over 50% from its all-time high of $69,000. Cryptocurrency experts and analysts have shared divided opinions on the next move of digital assets. The recent one comes from Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, Jurrien Timmer, who predicted that Bitcoin could hit $144,000. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is one of the most widely used to predict the next high or low and is very popular among cryptocurrency experts and investors.

Talking about the model, it was evident that Timmer has a better approach for stock and adoption data. According to him, the S2F model has a problem as it only focuses on scarcity. However, scarcity alone cannot be used to drive price if it is not adopted, used, or has any other use cases.

To get around this problem, Timmer created an S-curve model that is very similar to the mobile phone adoption curve. This will ensure that the future adoption rate of Bitcoin and the overall growth of the network are properly measured for accurate prediction.

Not only does this modified supply model better reconcile the demand model, but it seems to better explain Bitcoin’s lackluster price action of late. BTC never made it to the $100,000+ projections of the S2F model. Maybe that’s why? @100trillionUSD, I’m curious to know your opinion on this.

The Bitcoin prediction involved three different models

He also added that the model’s prediction of unprecedented Bitcoin growth could have been accurate if its adoption rate had been taken into account. He also expressed his doubts about the reliability of the model, as he believes that it may not work now that Bitcoin’s market capitalization reaches almost $600 billion.

In his prediction, he took into account the limitation of the supply of Bitcoin, so the projection of the supply can help to know precisely the degree of growth and the pace of adoption of the asset. Using three different models, he noted that Bitcoin is in a very good position to rally to $63,000. According to him, Bitcoin can go up to $144,000 in the best possible scenario. This means that the movement of the digital asset will be similar to the S-curve demand model of mobile phones.

I remain bullish on Bitcoin as a would-be store of value in a world of ongoing financial repression, but the exercise above is a good reminder that we should always revisit our assumptions, especially when price action deviates from expectations.

In April, Antoni Trenchev, CEO of crypto lending firm Nexo, also predicted that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in the next 12 months. However, he noted the possibility of the digital asset falling in the near term with traditional financial markets as the Federal Reserve introduced its monetary policies.