World War III alarm bells seem to be ringing everywhere as Russia and Ukraine battle it out on the front lines. For many, the conflict would be close to the beginning. However, for hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the conflagration has probably already started.
In a series of tweets, the analyst assured that it is a fait accompli and that little by little people will realize it. Also, Ackman claims to have nightmares with the arrival of a great war between powerful nations. He recalled that in January 2020 he had similar nightmares with the pandemic, which came true.
It should be borne in mind that not all world conflicts started in the same way, although all of them are motivated by the rearrangement of the markets. Despite this, the author makes a somewhat mechanical parallel with the events of World War II (1938-1945).
Are we really at the gates of World War III?
Unlike the two global conflicts of the 20th century, a Third World War looks like an unlikely scenario. In that sense, there is a very clear reason why this does not happen: nuclear deterrence.
The large nuclear arsenals of the main superpowers that make up rival blocs are a brake on their enmities. It should be noted that during the first two wars, there were no weapons of mass destruction, so they were produced very often.
Since the end of World War II, with the victorious flag of the Soviet Union over the German Reichstag, no new wars of this magnitude have occurred. Since then, the main superpowers fought through third parties. On the other hand, despite the existence of the most powerful blocs of nations such as NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, nuclear capacity served to curb even the most warlike ambitions within the main powers.
The secret that nuclear power hides is mutual self-destruction. Hence, neither Russia nor NATO dares to exchange a bullet with each other. Therefore, it could be said that Ackman’s words about an alleged Third World War in progress could not make sense, or do they?
Where do Ackman’s assumptions come from?
The reasons why the aforementioned analyst believes that WWIII has already begun are evident. It can be said that the previous world wars, especially the second one, did not start with all the countries fighting, but with foci and with an eccentric and aggressive leader detonating the conflict in stages. Thus, based on a mechanical comparison of Putin with Hitler, it can be said that the second of these began by invading a small country, Czechoslovakia. The same would be happening now with Russia and Ukraine.
To prevent this supposed world war from escalating, the investor considers that it is necessary to wage more war. Consequently, he calls for military aid to Ukraine to be increased and for oil purchases from Russia to be banned.
In other words, the hostilities can be stopped with more hostilities and, with this, the current Third World War is prevented from going to another level, he believes. « We can do more before entering a hot war with Russia. We could stop the absurdity of buying oil from Russia and financing the war », He writes.
At the same time, he says the West must do more and get rid of fears of “provoking Putin“.
A forgotten detail
Although the investment manager considers that he has a solution in his hands, he must not lose sight of the fact that in wars all sides have their reasons. In other words, if a country did not have valid justifications, it would never go to war.
Both the United States and its allies, as well as Russia, say they are on the defensive. However, these are two highly aggressive and dangerous blocks. But it’s worth noting that neither wants nuclear-driven mutual self-destruction to unleash in a pitiful World War III.
That is why Russia entered Syria to fight the US rebels, but not with them directly. Iran entered Yemen to fight with Saudi Arabia through Islamic groups and the United States led dozens of wars to fight with countries that did not represent a danger. With the latter, he sought to harm Russia, but without fighting with it.
Now the theater of operations is Ukraine, but NATO would not dare to confront Russia. Similarly, Russia did not dare confront NATO when it bombed Yugoslavia and Libya.
Although it sounds pessimistic to say it, the war between Russia and Ukraine is more of the same story.
